Martingale
Definition
Martingale is a trade-sizing method where, after every loss, the next trade is increased so that a single win covers all accumulated losses of the series. In binary options, where the payout is below 100%, the size grows even faster than in classic doubling.
How martingale works
The idea is simple: you pick a base trade size and trade with it. As long as trades close in profit, the size stays the same. But the moment a loss arrives, the next trade is increased enough for a single win to cover the whole accumulated loss of the series and bring the same profit as a normal base trade. After a win, the size resets to the base and the cycle starts over.
In the classic version (where the win equals the trade amount) you simply double the size after each loss. But in binary options the payout is fixed and below 100% — say 80%. That means a win brings back less than a loss takes away, and doubling is no longer enough to recover: the size has to grow more steeply.
A worked example
Take a base size of $1, a payout of 80%, and a run of five losses in a row. For the next win to cover all previous losses and yield the same profit as a base trade ($0.80), each step's size is calculated as (0.80 + accumulated loss) ÷ 0.80.
| Trade | Trade size | Loss on this trade | Accumulated loss |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | $1.00 | −$1.00 | −$1.00 |
| 2 | $2.25 | −$2.25 | −$3.25 |
| 3 | $5.06 | −$5.06 | −$8.31 |
| 4 | $11.39 | −$11.39 | −$19.70 |
| 5 | $25.63 | −$25.63 | −$45.33 |
| 6 | $57.67 | −$57.67 | −$103.00 |
By the fifth trade of the series you already have to stake $25.63 — 26 times the base size. By that point $45.33 is at risk. And by the sixth, the accumulated loss exceeds $103: on a $100 deposit the account runs out before a streak of six losses does. For comparison: with classic doubling (100% payout) the fifth trade would be only $16. It is precisely the fixed payout that makes martingale in binary options more dangerous than people assume.
Martingale in the terminal
In the Spectra Charts bot builder, increasing the size after a loss is offered as the Cascade mode: you set the base size, the growth factor, and — mandatorily — a series-length limit, after which the bot resets to base and books the loss. Here the limit is not an option but a safeguard: it turns martingale from infinite into manageable.
How it differs from anti-martingale
Martingale and anti-martingale are mirror approaches. Martingale increases the size after a loss, betting on a quick reversal of the streak. Anti-martingale, by contrast, increases the size after a win — it scales up profit on a winning run and cuts risk right after the first loss. The first method aggressively averages into losses, the second carefully builds up wins; in terms of risk, these are opposite philosophies.
Frequently asked questions
Does martingale work in binary options?
A run of wins and losses is finite, but your deposit is not: sooner or later a losing streak arrives that the account cannot survive. With a payout below 100% the size grows faster than in classic doubling, so the risk is even higher. The method does not change your mathematical expectation — it only redistributes the result over time.
How many losses in a row can a deposit survive?
Fewer than it seems. With a base size of 1% of the deposit and an 80% payout, the fifth trade of the series already takes about half the account. The larger the base size, the shorter the streak you can withstand.
Can martingale be made safe?
Not entirely. The only things that reduce the risk are a hard series-length limit and a small base size, but they also limit the method itself. Any martingale remains a bet that the losing streak ends before the deposit does.